When should I scale up my first China order?
Scale up only when reconciled sales, actual costs, customer outcomes and cleared receipts meet gates agreed before launch. Require evidence from ordinary selling conditions and enough customer use to reveal problems; missing evidence means hold. Cambridge China Bridge can help connect shipment records with your next purchasing decision.
Set the gates before the shipment goes on sale
Write a decision sheet before launch: the products and channels being tested, intended selling price, review date, minimum acceptable results, maximum further cash exposure and who approves the next order. Choose thresholds from your business economics and capacity to absorb losses. There is no useful universal shipment size or sales target.
Keep the purchasing steps in your first China order checklist. This decision sheet addresses what happens after delivery. Require sales records, cost reconciliation, returns records and bank receipts together. Passing a factory inspection establishes neither customer demand nor a viable repeat order.
| Gate | Evidence to require | Hold when |
|---|---|---|
| Sell-through | Retained customer sales against stock made available, split by product and channel | Sales depend on clearance pricing or an unrepresentative launch |
| Realised contribution | Net sales reconciled to actual stock and selling costs, with unresolved costs allowed for | The result relies on omitted costs or promised supplier credits |
| Returns | Delivered sales, customer use, return reasons and the cost of resolving problems | Use is too recent or a recurring fault remains unexplained |
| Cash recovery | Cleared receipts matched to shipment outflows and remaining obligations | The next deposit would consume cash needed for existing commitments |
Measure demand that a repeat order can reproduce
Measure sell-through as units sold and retained by customers against units made available for sale. Record damaged, quarantined and unavailable stock separately so it cannot improve the result invisibly. Split the evidence by product variant and channel; a popular variant can conceal unsold stock elsewhere.
Keep normal-price sales separate from discounts, launch promotions, staff purchases and exceptional wholesale deals. Record when stock became available and when customers received it. If availability, seasonality or promotion distorted the test, extend or repeat the relevant part before treating the result as repeatable demand.
Reconcile contribution rather than quote margin
Use net sales after discounts and refunds, with sales VAT excluded where applicable. Deduct the actual landed cost of sold units and attributable selling costs: fulfilment, delivery, channel fees, advertising, return handling and replacements. Label this realised contribution, define its scope and show launch costs separately. Do not treat it as whole-business profit.
Reconcile invoices using budgeted versus actual landed cost. Keep unsold stock visible separately as tied-up cash. Mark estimated charges, open refunds and disputed credits as unresolved, with an allowance for their possible cost. A contribution gate should not pass because those entries were left blank.
Give returns enough time to reveal the problem
Judge returns against delivered sales whose customers have had a meaningful opportunity to use the product. Record delivery dates, usage feedback, return reasons and resolution costs. Recent deliveries with no complaints provide weak evidence for durability. Use investigating customer returns to establish causes rather than counting every return as a factory defect.
For UK consumer sales, sale-price customers have the same refund rights as full-price customers. Clearance selling therefore does not remove that exposure. Keep an allowance for unresolved cases and later problems. Hold scaling where a recurring defect remains unexplained; require a documented correction and evidence that it worked before approving affected products.
Approve the next commitment only after cash review
Match cleared customer receipts to actual shipment payments and selling outflows. Show unpaid customer invoices, platform-held balances, unsold stock and promised credits separately from available cash. Compare recovered cash with total outflows, then deduct remaining commitments and the amount you want to retain for refunds and operating costs. Use the China order cash-flow calendar for payment timing.
At review, record pass, hold or stop for each gate, with supporting records and the approver's name. Missing evidence means hold, not pass. If all gates pass, approve only the products, channels and cash commitment supported by the test. If demand passes but cash recovery does not, consider a smaller repeat order or wait; record any exception and its maximum exposure.
Frequently asked questions
How much of my first shipment must sell before I reorder?
Set your own threshold before launch using stock exposure, contribution and cash needs. Require retained sales under repeatable conditions; selling out through clearance alone is weak evidence.
Can I reorder before all customer payments arrive?
Only if the cash review supports the commitment. Show unpaid invoices and held platform balances separately, and protect cash needed for refunds, existing bills and operations.
What if sales are good but returns are still unclear?
Hold the affected products. Check delivery dates, customer use and unresolved cases. Extend observation or test a correction rather than interpreting silence as proof of quality.
Does passing the gates justify a much larger order?
It supports a bounded next commitment. Check whether the larger order changes demand assumptions, stock exposure, factory processes or payment timing, and review those changes before approval.