How to forecast your first China order quantity
Use comparable products to frame demand, then test your offer with the buyers and selling price you intend to use. Build low, central and high forecasts for the same selling period. Cap the trial against affordable cash exposure and stock left in the low case. Discuss that capped quantity with Cambridge China Bridge.
Define the forecast before researching demand
Write down the product, target buyer, sales channel, intended selling price and selling period after arrival. Forecast each colour or size separately, then check the combined total. Keep trade enquiries and consumer demand separate so the same potential purchase is not counted twice.
Set a review date and describe what the trial must teach you: whether customers buy, which variants sell and whether the margin survives selling costs. Use the first-order checklist for supplier and order preparation; this forecast determines how much stock to expose to uncertain demand.
Use comparable products as a starting range
Choose products serving a similar buyer, use and price position through your intended channel. Record the source and observation date alongside price, delivery offer, seasonality, customer complaints and any credible sales evidence. Explain where your offer differs, including brand recognition and access to customers.
Listings, reviews, search interest and stock-outs can suggest demand, but do not establish a competitor's sales volume. Keep observed facts separate from estimates. If you cannot support a sales rate, use comparisons to design your demand test rather than inventing units sold.
Test the actual offer with potential buyers
Show a sample or clearly labelled proposed product at the intended price, with realistic delivery information. Use buyer interviews, a retailer sample review or a limited advertising test leading to an enquiry page. Ask trade buyers about intended quantities, timing and purchasing conditions. Record interest separately from confirmed purchases.
For each test, record relevant visitors or buyers approached, qualified enquiries, purchases where available, acquisition spending and reasons for declining. Remove duplicate contacts and separate friends from your target audience. Estimate conversion only from a measured audience and a matching outcome. A free sign-up does not prove willingness to pay.
Build low, central and high scenarios
For each scenario, multiply reachable qualified visitors by the purchase conversion assumption and units per purchase. For trade sales, use reachable accounts, the assumed share that buys and units per buying account. Deduct expected cancellations and returns to estimate net sales. Use the same selling period throughout and record the evidence or uncertainty behind each assumption.
Keep reach within the audience and advertising budget you can actually access. Do not scale a brief promotion across the whole selling period without explaining why its performance should continue. Where purchase evidence is missing, label conversion as an assumption and keep the trial small enough to test it.
| Scenario | Assumptions | Decision it supports |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Weaker response, slower launch or less reachable demand | Check remaining stock and cash at risk |
| Central | The most defensible interpretation of comparable products and tests | Choose a candidate trial quantity |
| High | Stronger response supported by a plausible channel plan | Prepare replenishment options without buying speculative stock |
Turn the forecast into a capped trial
Start with central-case net sales for the trial period, plus separately identified samples and replacement stock. Reduce that candidate quantity until the complete order fits your cash ceiling, storage capacity and acceptable unsold balance in the low case. Use quoted costs, including fixed costs and selling expenses; see working capital for China orders. Check cash timing as well as profit.
If the factory minimum or carton rounding takes you above the cap, change the specification, seek stock goods or postpone the order. Use MOQ and sampling and small-order sourcing for those options. Record the approved cap and review actual net sales, returns, margin and remaining stock before reordering. Use the high case to discuss replenishment availability, without increasing the trial automatically.
Frequently asked questions
How do I forecast sales with no sales history?
Define the buyer, channel, price and selling period. Use comparable products to frame assumptions, then measure responses to your actual offer. Keep unsupported assumptions visible in each scenario.
Can I use competitor reviews to estimate sales?
Reviews can reveal demand signals and product problems, but do not establish sales volume. Use them to choose comparable products and test questions, unless you also have credible sales evidence.
Should my first China order match the high forecast?
Use the central case to propose a trial, then reduce it to fit your cash and low-case stock limits. Use the high case to plan replenishment options.
What if the factory MOQ exceeds my trial cap?
Ask about stock products, simpler specifications or another supplier. If the order still exceeds your cash or unsold-stock limit, postpone it rather than raising the forecast to justify the minimum.