How much stock should I send by emergency air?
Send enough to cover the projected shortage until the sea stock is conservatively expected to be sellable, provided air arrives while it can still save sales. Compare the extra rescue cost with contribution from sales genuinely preserved, rather than revenue. Cambridge China Bridge can help check factory stock and rescue quotes.
Set dates for sellable stock
The sea vs air freight guide explains the transport choice. Here, start with the delayed shipment's latest confirmed position. Ask the forwarder and warehouse for a conservative date covering discharge, clearance, delivery, receiving and your stock-release checks. Record the assumptions and a later-date scenario. A vessel arrival date is not a sellable-stock date.
Set an equivalent sellable date for the air shipment, including factory release and packing. You can hire a transporter or customs agent to make the import declaration and get goods through UK customs. Ask who will handle this before booking. The shipping guide covers the wider journey.
Calculate the gap for each product
Build a dated stock projection for each product and variant. Start with usable stock, add confirmed receipts when they become sellable, and subtract outstanding orders and expected demand through the sea stock's sellable date. Exclude damaged, quarantined or unavailable stock. If orders are already deducted from available stock, do not subtract them again. Forecast demand when stock was available; stockout sales records can understate demand.
The uncovered demand is the starting rescue quantity, with any chosen buffer shown separately. Check the projection before air becomes sellable: air cannot recover sales already lost. Include earlier backorders only where customers will still accept delivery. Round the candidate quantity to pack sizes, then cap it at verified factory availability and demand the rescue can actually serve.
Quote the quantity you can actually dispatch
Ask for quotes against the proposed carton count, packed dimensions, weight, collection point and delivery address. Request smaller and larger candidate quantities where useful. Do not scale a quotation by units alone: packing and fixed charges can change the result. Use comparing forwarder quotes to check inclusions and exclusions.
If the sea goods have already departed, identify a separate available batch for air; do not assume the goods afloat can be diverted. Confirm variants, quality status and release authority with the factory. If air stock is additional rather than diverted from an unshipped sea allocation, record the extra purchase cash and possible surplus when the sea shipment arrives.
Compare extra cost with contribution preserved
For each product, calculate contribution per sale as selling price less its normal variable costs, including product cost and variable selling and fulfilment costs, before the emergency premium. Multiply this by sales that would genuinely be lost without rescue but fulfilled with it. Exclude customers who would wait anyway and sales likely to move to another product you already hold.
Compare that contribution with all additional rescue costs versus waiting: air transport, extra handling, clearance fees, delivery, repacking and any extra purchase or surplus losses not already counted. Deduct only costs genuinely avoided, not committed sea freight. Avoid counting product cost in both contribution and rescue cost. Show expected returns and cancellations consistently, and assess purchase cash separately from profitability.
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Approve a bounded rescue and keep it current
Repeat the calculation using weaker demand, later air availability and a later sea sellable date. Choose the smallest quoted quantity that covers the agreed gap and preserves more contribution than its extra cost under assumptions you can defend. If rescuing the whole range fails, prioritise products with firm demand and positive contribution after rescue costs.
Record the approved products, quantities, maximum extra spend, quote expiry and latest useful air sellable date. Recheck stock, bookings and customer demand before dispatch. Stop or resize the rescue if it becomes too late or the sea date improves. Cambridge China Bridge's staff in China can help check the available batch and packing details against this brief.
Frequently asked questions
How many units should I air freight?
Project usable stock and demand until the conservative sea sellable date. Quote the uncovered quantity by product, allowing separately for a chosen buffer and pack sizes. Check that air arrives while those units can still preserve sales.
Should I use the vessel arrival date?
Use the date stock is expected to be sellable after clearance, delivery, warehouse receiving and your release checks. Ask for a conservative date and test a later scenario.
Is emergency air freight worth the cost?
Compare the additional rescue cost with contribution from sales genuinely preserved. Revenue alone overstates the benefit. Include extra handling and possible surplus losses, and deduct only costs actually avoided.
What if air freight arrives after I run out?
Separate sales lost before air becomes sellable from later demand it can serve. Include earlier backorders only if customers will still accept delivery. Reduce or cancel the rescue if too little useful demand remains.