Switch from air to sea freight without stock gaps
Start sea orders while air still covers demand. Map each product's weekly sellable stock, dated receipts and payments, then reduce air only when sea receipts protect your stock buffer under a delay scenario. Review the overlap plan with Cambridge China Bridge.
Choose which products can move first
Start with products whose demand and production are reasonably predictable. Keep volatile lines on air until their forecasts support a longer commitment. Use sea versus air freight to assess the transport choice; this transition plan addresses how to keep selling while the longer pipeline fills.
For each product, agree weekly demand, a minimum sellable-stock buffer and the cash available for transition. Include promotions and confirmed customer orders in demand without counting them again in the forecast. Use a higher-demand scenario as well as your expected sales.
Map receipts against weekly demand
Build a separate weekly schedule for each product, extending through successive sea receipts. Start with usable warehouse stock, excluding defective or quarantined goods. Record every open order by batch, quantity, transport method and expected sellable receipt date. Trace production, inspection, dispatch, clearance, delivery and warehouse acceptance using shipping lead-time planning.
Carry each week's closing stock into the next week's opening stock. Add usable receipts and subtract planned demand. Do not add goods in production or transit to warehouse stock. If a receipt falls after that week's customer dispatches, move it to the following demand period or check the daily sequence.
| Field | What to record |
|---|---|
| Opening sellable stock | Previous closing stock, adjusted for confirmed stock discrepancies |
| Air receipts | Batch reference, usable quantity and warehouse availability date |
| Sea receipts | Batch reference, usable quantity and warehouse availability date |
| Demand | Forecast including confirmed orders and planned promotions |
| Closing stock | Opening stock plus usable receipts less demand |
| Buffer shortfall | Any gap between closing stock and the agreed minimum |
| Cash movement | Dated payments and expected customer cash receipts |
Size the final air orders to bridge the gap
Place the initial sea order early enough to start filling the longer pipeline while air replenishment continues. Work backwards from its expected sellable receipt date. Find the earliest week when existing stock and confirmed receipts fall below your buffer; schedule an air receipt before that shortage. For clothing orders, see our garment packing for sea freight guide. For fabric orders, see our guide to shipping fabric rolls without damage.
Size the air bridge to cover demand until usable sea stock arrives, plus the agreed buffer, less stock and receipts already covering that period. Assign quantities to distinct batches so a split shipment is not counted under both methods. Reduce later air orders as sea coverage improves, rather than stopping all air when the vessel departs.
Check that stock after the initial sea receipt lasts until the next sea receipt. A successful handover can still fail if the following order is placed too late. Reset routine ordering around the longer pipeline using reorder points for China stock.
Budget the peak cash overlap
Build a weekly cash schedule alongside the stock schedule. Enter deposits, balances, air and sea freight, clearance, duty, delivery, storage and any import VAT cash payment using actual quotes and agreed payment dates. Add expected customer receipts when cash should arrive, rather than when sales are booked. See working capital for China orders.
Compare cumulative net cash outflow under the transition with continued air replenishment for the same demand. The greatest additional funding gap shows the extra cash needed during overlap. Separately track amounts already paid for unsold goods in production, transit and storage; unpaid commitments belong in the payment forecast. Lower sea freight does not itself fund earlier supplier payments.
Before assuming an import VAT cash payment, ask your accountant whether postponed VAT accounting applies. Your business must be registered for VAT in the UK to use it. Keep the forecast based on your confirmed arrangements.
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Set triggers before reducing air
Move sea receipts later and increase demand in separate stress scenarios, then combine them. Recalculate the air bridge and cash gap each time. Set the latest decision date for an air rescue by working backwards from the threatened stock shortage through production, inspection and air delivery.
Reduce air only when the revised schedule protects the buffer, funding is available and the following sea order is on track. If a milestone slips, update receipt dates immediately and buy only the uncovered bridge quantity. Check sellable receipts and actual demand weekly until sea replenishment is established.
Frequently asked questions
When should I stop ordering by air?
When confirmed sea receipts and existing stock cover demand and your buffer through the following sea receipt, including your chosen delay scenario. A vessel departure alone is insufficient.
How much stock should my final air order cover?
Cover demand until usable sea stock arrives, plus your agreed buffer, less usable stock and receipts already covering that period. Check when the air quantity can actually reach your warehouse.
How much extra cash does switching to sea need?
Compare weekly cumulative net cash outflow with continued air replenishment for the same demand. Budget the greatest additional funding gap using actual supplier payments, freight bills and customer receipt dates.
What if my first sea shipment is delayed?
Move its sellable receipt date in the stock schedule and identify the earliest buffer shortfall. Before the rescue deadline, arrange air for the uncovered quantity and update the cash forecast.