How to plan seasonal buying from China

Define the selling window before the order

Record when selling starts, when demand peaks, when markdowns begin and when seasonal selling ends. Separate the launch stock deadline from the latest useful receipt date for replenishment. Stock arriving before the season ends can still be too late to sell at the intended price. For Black Friday, see our guide to planning Black Friday stock.

Build weekly demand by product, colour, size and sales channel from your own sales history, customer orders and enquiries. Flag past stockouts, promotions and returns rather than treating recorded sales as unrestricted demand. Test new products with customers before making a large commitment. Record the reason for each assumption.

Work backwards to dated buying decisions

For each planned receipt, work backwards from stock being available to customers through warehouse preparation, delivery, clearance, transport, inspection, production and sample approval. Use confirmed supplier and freight estimates rather than generic durations. Our shipping lead-time guide explains the underlying stages; this programme connects them to weekly stock needs.

Ask the factory for material, production and inspection milestones, including closure and restart arrangements. Set dates for approving samples, committing materials and releasing replenishment. Record the latest decision date for each option and who owns it. Distinguish flexible forecasts from committed quantities using our forecast and firm-order checklist.

Build a weekly stock ledger

Keep a separate weekly ledger for each variant and destination. Carry the previous closing stock into opening stock. Add receipts only when goods are saleable, and add returns only after they are checked and released. Keep ordered, in-transit and held goods outside available stock. Allocate shared stock explicitly so channels cannot each assume it is theirs.

Available stock is opening stock plus released receipts and saleable returns, less other removals. Fulfilled sales are the smaller of demand and available stock; closing stock is available stock less fulfilled sales. Record unmet demand separately. If receipts arrive during the week, split the calculation around arrival so earlier demand cannot consume later stock.

Define cumulative sell-through as net units sold divided by opening saleable stock plus cumulative saleable receipts. Net sales deduct customer returns; those returns re-enter stock only when saleable. Keep this denominator unchanged across scenarios. Leave the rate blank when its denominator is empty, and show units alongside it.

Test demand and delivery separately

Create a central case, a weaker-demand case and a stronger-demand case using assumptions supported by your records. Change the weekly shape as well as total demand: a delayed peak can leave launch stock sitting while a short peak exposes shortages. State any assumed markdown response explicitly rather than assuming every discount clears stock.

Run each demand case against the planned receipt schedule and a delayed schedule. Move receipts to their revised availability dates without moving the selling window. Track shortage weeks, missed full-price sales, peak stock, season-end stock and committed goods arriving afterwards. Treat unmet demand as lost unless you have a reason to model customer backorders.

Compare the initial buy and replenishment options on margin and cash exposure as well as units. Include freight, preparation, storage and markdown costs, and place payments and customer cash receipts in their expected weeks. Use our working-capital guide for the wider funding calculation.

Set release gates and an exit plan

Choose an initial commitment that fits your cash capacity and weaker-demand exposure. Release further quantities only when updated demand, confirmed factory progress and the remaining selling window justify them. A smaller shipment is useful only if the factory and freight arrangements actually support it. Compare options using our bulk discounts and holding-cost guide.

Refresh the ledger weekly with actual sales, returns, released stock and revised receipt dates. Agree triggers for holding an uncommitted release, changing the variant mix or considering faster transport. Compare the extra transport cost with the margin realistically recoverable before the selling window closes.

Set an acceptable leftover position by variant and plan clearance, carry-over or another sales channel before ordering. Season-end exposure includes saleable leftovers, held goods and outstanding commitments. Carry-over needs a credible future market and allowance for storage and deterioration. Give Cambridge China Bridge the ledger and decision dates so its staff in China can check factory milestones against the programme.