Can I afford overlapping China orders?
You can afford the next order only if available cash and confirmed funding cover the lowest projected cash balance across overlapping batches, while preserving your operating reserve. Model payments and actual customer receipts together through repeated replenishment cycles. Discuss factory payment milestones with Cambridge China Bridge.
Build a programme forecast
Start with the order cash-flow calendar for payment milestones and the working-capital guide for the funding checklist. Then combine every open and planned batch on a shared timeline. A profitable batch can still leave you short when its balance payment overlaps the next deposit.
Record opening available cash, existing commitments and the minimum cash reserve needed for the rest of your business. Separate confirmed funding from facilities you have merely applied for. Extend the forecast through repeated replenishment and collection cycles until you can see whether the cash trough stabilises or keeps deepening.
Put each batch's movements on actual dates
For each batch, enter the deposit, balance, freight, checks, delivery, storage and applicable tax cash movements using your quotes and agreed terms. Record the payment trigger beside each date. Keep the deposit separate from the remaining balance so that the full invoice is not counted again. Convert foreign-currency payments using explicit budgeting assumptions.
Forecast customer receipts from expected sell-through, invoicing terms and payment behaviour. Stock arrival, a sale and an invoice are different events from cash reaching your bank. Allow for marketplace settlement delays, refunds and deductions. Show slow-moving products separately so that faster sellers do not hide stock that remains unpaid for.
Find the cash trough and funding gap
At each payment or receipt date, carry forward the previous cash balance, add receipts and subtract payments across all batches. Show movements within a reporting period in their expected order: a customer receipt after a supplier payment cannot fund that earlier payment. Identify the lowest balance and the commitments causing it.
Before financing, the greatest excess of cumulative programme payments over cumulative programme receipts is the programme's peak cash requirement. The additional funding gap is the amount needed to keep the combined business cash balance above your chosen reserve. Include overheads, existing debts and other commitments in that business view. Record funding drawdowns, repayments and charges separately.
Test replenishment and tax assumptions
Link replenishment dates to forecast usable stock and demand, rather than copying a fixed buying calendar. Slower sales may postpone the next order but also postpone receipts; faster sales may bring the next deposit forward. Test both patterns, alongside delayed delivery, inspection failure, an earlier balance demand and adverse exchange movements. Recalculate the peak after each change.
Keep VAT accounting entries separate from bank movements. HMRC guidance explains that postponed VAT accounting can allow import VAT to be declared and recovered on the same VAT return. Ask your accountant to confirm eligibility and treatment before modelling it. Enter expected tax payments or refunds on their own dates; do not assume a reclaim immediately supplies cash.
Make the next deposit a decision gate
Compare the base forecast and stressed forecasts with cash and funding actually available on the trough dates. If a gap remains, compare smaller batches, later commitments, changed payment milestones and earlier customer collection. Use the bulk-buying comparison before accepting a discount that increases the programme's cash requirement.
For staged buying, use the forecast and call-off guide to clarify what you are committing to pay for. Agree revised milestones before relying on them. Refresh the forecast with actual payments, usable stock and receipts before each deposit. Cambridge China Bridge's staff in China can help clarify factory milestones; approve the order against your own funding forecast.
Frequently asked questions
Can I reorder before the current batch has sold?
Yes, if dated receipts, available cash and confirmed funding cover overlapping commitments while preserving your operating reserve. Unsold stock and forecast profit are not available cash.
How do I calculate peak cash for repeat orders?
Combine all batches on a dated timeline. Track cumulative payments less cumulative receipts before financing. The greatest excess is the programme's peak cash requirement.
Does slower selling reduce my funding requirement?
It may delay replenishment, but it also delays receipts. Model both effects together. Keeping the original reorder schedule while pushing receipts back can deepen the cash trough.
How far ahead should my cash forecast run?
Continue through repeated ordering and customer collection until the trough stabilises or reveals a growing gap. Include payments already committed beyond the latest stock arrival.