Forecast repeat China orders after stockouts
Calculate selling rates only over comparable periods when customers could actually buy the product. Keep unavailable periods separate, estimate missed demand cautiously and record a forecast range with its assumptions. Turn that forecast into an approved replenishment plan with Cambridge China Bridge.
Rebuild the availability record
Keep a record by product variant and sales channel, showing units sold, sellable stock, availability dates, price and promotions. Record when customers could actually order, rather than relying only on warehouse balances. Stock reserved for other customers, quarantined goods and an inactive listing may all prevent sales.
Label each period as available, unavailable, partly available or unknown. Split periods at stockout and restocking times where records allow. Keep genuine no-sale periods when the product was available; flag missing availability records as unknown rather than treating them as evidence of absent demand.
Calculate a comparable in-stock selling rate
Divide units sold during confirmed available periods by the selling time covered by those periods. Use the same time unit throughout. If stock ran out during a trading day, use the available part where known; otherwise flag that day as partial instead of counting it as fully available.
Compare like with like: the same variant, channel, season, price and promotion conditions. Keep promotion sales and post-restock backlog clearances separate from ordinary selling. A brief available spell during peak demand is a weak basis for forecasting the whole season.
Estimate missed demand without rewriting sales
Keep actual sales unchanged. In a separate estimate field, apply a comparable in-stock rate to unavailable selling time. Label the result as estimated missed demand, with the source period and assumptions. If there is no credible comparison, record demand as unknown rather than inserting a confident replacement.
Use backorders, cancelled orders, enquiries and restock requests to challenge the estimate. Deduplicate customer records and separate outstanding orders from abandoned purchases. Check whether buyers switched to another product in your range; adding estimated lost demand to substitute sales can overstate total demand.
| Record | What to retain | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Actual sales | Recorded sales and the availability status | Preserve the original trading record |
| In-stock rate | Comparable selling periods and exclusions | Build the demand baseline |
| Missed-demand estimate | Method, comparison period and assumptions | Explore demand hidden by stockouts |
| Uncertainty | Missing records and alternative explanations | Set scenarios and review triggers |
Record a range and test it after restocking
Write lower, central and higher demand scenarios, explaining what changes between them. Include uncertainty about availability, seasonality, customer substitution and promotional activity. These are planning scenarios, not statistical confidence limits unless a suitable model supports that description.
Save the forecast before new sales arrive. Compare it with later periods of confirmed availability and comparable trading conditions, keeping backlog clearances separate. If another stockout occurs, flag the comparison as constrained by availability rather than concluding that low sales prove the forecast was too high.
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Turn the forecast into a repeat-order brief
Project demand across the replenishment period using dates confirmed for production, checks, transport and warehouse receipt. Deduct usable stock and confirmed incoming goods, and account for customer commitments without counting them again in forecast demand. Use the reorder-point guide for the replenishment decision. For repeat-order checks, see monitoring product rule changes. For component orders, see our guide to turning forecasts into component buying plans.
Send the forecast range, availability record, assumptions and review trigger to Cambridge China Bridge. Our staff in China can discuss factory capacity and batch options against your brief. Keep the forecast and firm purchase order distinct, and use the supplier call-off guide when agreeing release arrangements.
Frequently asked questions
Should I include stockout days in average sales?
Exclude unavailable selling time from the in-stock rate. Retain stockout periods separately so you can estimate missed demand and show uncertainty.
What if I do not know when stock ran out?
Mark availability as unknown. Check stock movements, listing records and order timestamps. Use comparable confirmed in-stock periods cautiously and document the gap.
Can I count backorders as lost sales?
Keep outstanding backorders separate from abandoned purchases. They can inform demand, but counting them again when fulfilled would inflate the record.
How do I forecast a product that is often out of stock?
Use comparable available periods and customer-request evidence, with a wider documented range where evidence is weak. Review after restocking before increasing factory commitments.